Economist defends Marinus Link as strategic national investment despite mounting scrutiny

Independent economist Saul Eslake has thrown his weight behind the multi-billion-dollar Marinus Link interconnector, arguing the controversial Bass Strait project serves the national interest and will unlock Tasmania's energy sector development despite escalating questions about its commercial viability.

In a new report commissioned by Clean Energy Tasmania, Mr Eslake contends that the submarine cable infrastructure will resolve a critical "deadlock" constraining the state's electricity system and position Australia to meet ambitious renewable energy targets.

The endorsement arrives at a fraught moment for the project. Last week, a competing economic analysis concluded Marinus Link's business case appeared increasingly unviable in light of rapid technological change and shifting market conditions. The Climate Change Authority chair Matt Kean has also recently questioned the project's financial soundness, adding to mounting political and expert scrutiny of the $15 billion infrastructure gambit.

The case for national strategic significance

Mr Eslake's position suggests that evaluating Marinus Link purely through a commercial lens misses the broader strategic picture. The economist argues the project should be assessed against its capacity to enhance national energy security and facilitate the transition to a renewable-dominant grid—outcomes that may not generate immediate returns but carry significant long-term economic value.

The report by independent economist Saul Eslake, for Clean Energy Tasmania, follows another analysis released last week, which concluded the business case for Marinus Link appeared increasingly unviable due to technology and market developments.

Tasmania's energy sector currently faces structural constraints. Despite the state's substantial hydroelectric generation capacity and favourable conditions for wind and solar development, transmission bottlenecks prevent efficient export of renewable energy to mainland markets. Marinus Link would effectively dissolve this constraint, enabling Tasmania to function as a renewable energy powerhouse for eastern Australia.

Tasmanian government seizes on report as vindication

The Tasmanian government has rapidly seized upon Mr Eslake's findings as confirmation of the state government's longstanding position that Marinus Link will generate employment, lower electricity prices, and attract investment in renewable energy industries.

For Hobart policymakers, the project represents a generational opportunity to transition the state's economy away from traditional resource extraction industries toward high-value renewable energy manufacturing and export. Job creation across construction, engineering, and emerging green industries features prominently in the government's advocacy for the interconnector.

Competing analyses heighten debate

Yet the clash between Mr Eslake's optimistic assessment and last week's critical analysis underscores fundamental disagreement among experts about the project's merit. The earlier report's conclusion that technological change and market dynamics have eroded Marinus Link's commercial case raises legitimate questions about whether the massive public investment can be justified on fiscal grounds alone.

Climate policy advocates must now navigate competing technical arguments whilst weighing broader questions about government's appropriate role in backing large infrastructure projects when private sector confidence remains uncertain.

National implications

The Marinus Link debate extends well beyond Tasmania. Australia's renewable energy transition depends partly on whether large-scale interconnection infrastructure can be funded and completed in an increasingly complex policy environment. The project's ultimate success or failure will significantly influence future investment decisions in Australia's energy infrastructure.

First published by ABC News